Towards a New Era of Peace in Korea?

I have not written in English for quite a long time. I thought that the current events in Korea could be the best excuse to do so, as it is also a relevant country for me and my interests apart from China, Japan and Tibet. This entry represents a bookmark within all my entries about Korea, as I have focused on different aspects such as trade and its interactions with Japan. I believe that there is no better time to give some continuity to what I wrote in the last chapter of my thesis about North Korea’s foreign policy written during 2012, when Kim Jong-Il died and Kim Jong Un got into power.

This entry addresses the main question surrounding the meeting between President Moon and Kim Jong Un during the last days, its implications and possible outcomes. The first section gives an overview about both Koreas after the war, how they have differentiated themselves and how they have evolved and the prevailing discourse they hold from each other. The second section addresses the controversy around North Korea’s nuclear programme, which is inherent to its foreign policy and has been defined by it as an instrument of apparent coercion and deterrence. The third section explains the role of the Korean Peninsula as a strategic zone for China and the United States and its division convenient to maintain the status quo, as well as reunification as a common concern to both Koreas and the factors that have undermined it. The last section concludes that despite the notable efforts from both sides to solve their differences and achieve a peace agreement that ends the war, Korea still has its own geostrategic character as an obstacle that has the potential to undermine any attempt for reunification and denuclearisation.

Korea has been divided since 1953 and until a couple of days ago, they were still at war. During the last years, most interactions were reduced to a Cold War in a micro-level, as North Korea would do nuclear tests, then Seoul would condemn them, and then the United States and South Korea would do military exercises and the cycle repeats itself all over again. There was no substantial progress during the years after 2003 when the Clinton administration tried to achieve an agreement through the Six Party Talks and President Bush rejected it and then ignored the issue due to the War on Terror and his focus on homeland security.

North Korea according to some, turned into a nuclear power out of security and self-sufficiency concerns, while others claim that everything is part of a façade of the country to be taken seriously. In view of the situation in the country since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea is far from being a place where people can enjoy the fruits of their hard-work and the so-called self-sufficiency, as sanctions end up affecting the people rather than the regime. North Korea incurred into the practices that were used during the Cold War in places like Cuba to overcome scarcity at home through underground trade and agreements. In this sense, China has played a major role in providing foodstuffs and hydrocarbons to the country but at the same time, it has served as the route for product and people smuggling. The Kim regime however, except when they go too far with their nuclear tests, has served China well as a buffer zone to keep the United States away from its border.

South Korea has a rather complicated role out of its geographic position and as a US ally. The country suffered from starvation and social turmoil after the end of the war and it took the country more than fifty years and two dictatorships (Syngman Rhee and Park Chung-hee) to achieve economic growth and its status as a modern, industrialised nation. South Korea’s case and its path towards capitalism is unique in the sense of turning into a market economy gradually despite the presence of three hard-core communist monoliths above the 38th Parallel. South Korea has also been trying to manage the issue with the North for both social and security reasons, as there is a generation of families that stands divided and can meet whenever both governments agree to do so. There is also the Kaesong complex that has workers from both sides and that constitutes a valuable source of income for North Koreans. In terms of security, economic growth needs peace to prosper for both sides, therefore managing the tension was more profitable than trying to solve it through coercion.

North Korea regards the South as part of the United States and its military presence is considered a constant threat. In the years before 2003, there was a controversy regarding the objectives of the nuclear programme, as the Kim regime was investing human and financial capital into nuclear energy research and production. The Six Party Talks came due to the suspicions and, there was evidence of the use of Uranium and Plutonium, its remaining form after processing. The Six Party Talks involved both North and South Korea, Japan, the United States and Russia. Instead of targeting nuclear facilities by closing them, the initial project was dismantling them in return of light water reactors that sought to satisfy the North's energy needs. The defensive tone taken by the Bush administration towards North Korea ended up in more sanctions and freezing of assets. It was after the failure of this negotiation that the country continued its uranium enrichment programme and rocket tests.

When Kim Jong Il died, there was some uncertainty regarding the type of person that Kim Jong Un would be. Some argued that he was an intelligent man, others claimed that maybe because of his age, he would be more open to achieve an agreement with the South and with the other involved parties. The first years of his mandate however, proved otherwise as Kim started cleansing the Korean Worker's Party, got rid of some of his father's closest allies and disappeared the people he thought would be dissenters or traitors. Opposite to what some expected on the other side of the parallel, Kim started his government through terror and continued to pursue more aggressive policies towards the nuclear programme.

During nuclear tensions and verbal wars between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump, South Korea was absorbed by its own political problems with the corruption scandals surrounding the conservative President Park, who ended up being sacked and jailed. President Jae Moon constituted a breathing space for the country not only in terms of a change in the political spectrum but also within the North Korea-U.S. verbal exchanges. Moon's approach towards North Korea stood in stark contrast with Park's, as the former sought conciliation while the latter confrontation. The problem grew when South Korea out of its own security concerns decided to build a High Altitude Missile system (THAAD) supported by the United States, which ended up with China feeling threatened and exercising economic statecraft against Lotte and South Korea.

In view of this complicated regional context added to Japan's attempts to reform its constitution to build an army and China's discourse of peaceful coexistence as no longer credible in the region, Moon and Kim have provided an alternative within this environment to diminish tensions at least between them. North Korea has been a problem in the region for a long time, therefore halting or stopping the programme either permanently or temporarily, helps to alleviate tensions in the region as South Korea would have no need for the joint-military exercises with the U.S. and the deployment of THAAD. The geostrategic importance of both countries however, could hinder any attempt for reunification or for establishing a long-lasting peace.

In this sense, the United States will be a key actor in this negotiation and so will be China, as both have their own interests in keeping Korea divided. China does not want the presence of the United States close to its border, therefore one of the possible conditions for a long-lasting peace is Seoul closing Yongsan and Busan bases. The Trump administration with its current priorities and tone might not be open to reduce its presence in Asia due to the size and importance of their military bases in South Korea. Additionally, China might not be comfortable with sharing the border with a consolidated market economy with stricter regulations regarding cross-border trade, as if reunification ever happens, market economy might be the preferred system by the peninsula. Differences between the systems of both China and South Korea are important because North Korea's border with China is complex but opposite to what could be expected from two communist regimes, it is a porous border, as people and goods move freely either through legal means or smuggling. Shenyang and Dandong have served as hosts for North Korean business people and their companies. Arirang reports that people come and go every day from one country to the other.

In summary, Korea's position as a geostrategic place for the United States and as a buffer zone for China complicates the whole peace-making process. Kim Jong Un by himself is also an additional problem, as the leader is unpredictable and despite the assurances given by President Jae Moon, negotiations could have a twist if the Trump administration decides to be imposing instead of conciliatory. China could either support it or be against it depending on what both Koreas decide but, the reality is that peace would benefit China after South Korea, as to sustain economic growth they need a stable and peaceful environment. Reducing the North Korean threat might have an additional benefit: Japan could lower its expectations towards building an army for defensive purposes, which could reduce tensions and mistrust between China, Japan and Korea. The end of the Korean War is the beginning of a long process that will be determined by the stances taken by both countries, but also by the actors involved. Negotiations rarely have an outcome that benefits all the parties involved therefore, if both Koreas are able to put their own expectations and bilateral relations as the priority, a long-lasting peace might be possible, as finding a solution that suits both China and the United States is close to impossible.